Sunday, November 9, 2008

What is the Future of the Middle East?

Mr. President, in the next four to eight years you will face five challenges, the worst of which is Iran. Thus said the diminutive diplomatic correspondent Robin Wright in reference to her letter to the next president from her new book "Dreams and Shadows: The Future of the Middle East".

Wright outlined her concerns in October as part of the President's Distinguished Lecture Series, a decades-old Western Washington University tradition. Raising one finger at a time, she ticked off the foremost global challenges: Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Palestine/Israel and Iran. Of these, Iraq will be the easiest, Iran the most daunting.

Wright states that the good news about Iran is that the multinational resolutions are moving forward, albeit slowly. The bad news far outweighs the good.

The downside in Iran includes Tehran not budging from its position on nuclear power; the military making deeper incursions into Iraq and Afghanistan; Hezbollah re-arming and strengthening; and the leadership striving to become the super-power of the region. Over all these issues loom the Supreme Law and the Supreme Leader, the structure and power paralleling, and trumping, the elected government and secular law.

For her views on the other four trouble spots, see "Dreams and Shadows".

Wright recognizes that oil is the reason the United States is committed to the Middle East. We must develop alternative energy sources, she says, and that does not mean drilling in Alaska. “If we don’t wean ourselves from oil, we’ll be in real trouble."

Wright defines herself as the ultimate pessimist, not debating whether the glass is half full or half empty, but asking, “Is there really any water in the glass at all?” She ponders why anyone would want the job of president of the United States and concludes her letter to the next one with, “I wish you lots of luck, because you’re going to need it.”

[“Dreams and Shadows: The Future of the Middle East,” by Robin Wright. Penquin Press. For more on Wright and her views, see Anthropology Professor Kathleen Young moderate a talk show with Wright, using questions posted to the internet at http://pandora.cii.wwu.edu/wright/]

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